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Post by Mysticman89 on Apr 18, 2011 13:17:30 GMT -5
Well, in the actual game the odds are ~1/8k, so this isn't all that different.
If it was 1/10k pokemon (rather 1/10k pikachus), then lots more of us would have shinies, since a number of us are probably over 20 hours of shiny hunting at this stage without a shiny, which would be well over 10k pokemon.
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Post by hirschi15 on Apr 18, 2011 13:19:36 GMT -5
plus! We go through lots more pokemon then you do on gameboy
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Post by Calvin on Apr 19, 2011 6:40:25 GMT -5
Roughly speaking, you calculated how long it'd take to see 10000 pikachus, on the assumption that every 10000'th pikachu would be shiny, as opposed to the chance of seeing a shiny pikachu within 10k pikachus. It's a subtle difference, and something people commonly do when it comes to probability. As a simpler example, what's the probability that if you roll a 6 sided dice 6 times, that you'll get at least one 6? (It's not 100%, as some niave approaches might suggest.) Thanks for taking your time to explain. So you are basically saying that a percentage of 0.01, might not necessary guarantee an encounter with a shiny pikachu within 10000 pikachus? And that is due to the type of random number generator that Sam used? Sorry for asking so much as my Maths knowledge is pretty much limited. Anyway can I refine the my first post with your calculations to provide better figures for the community? Just a sidenote: For those people who are currently trying to catch your shiny pikachu, I suggest you don't station any Pokemons on the map so as to ensure the safety of a shiny in case it appears.
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Post by notactuallytom on Apr 19, 2011 9:24:40 GMT -5
There's a little less than 2/3 chance that a shiny pikachu will show up within 10000 trials. A trial being a pikachu showing up.
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Post by Mysticman89 on Apr 19, 2011 11:48:13 GMT -5
Thanks for taking your time to explain. So you are basically saying that a percentage of 0.01, might not necessary guarantee an encounter with a shiny pikachu within 10000 pikachus? Yes. Much like if you flip a coin twice (50% chance of a head each time), you're not garunteed to get a head. It's just a result of how probability works in the first place when it comes to *random* number generators. If a given random number generator did garuntee a certain result, then it wouldn't be random. That's fine with me. You can adjust your post or just point to mine, or both, depending on how comfortable you are with the math I did.
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Post by kratos on Apr 19, 2011 12:06:15 GMT -5
As always, very informative mystic i congratulate you
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Post by manowar on Apr 19, 2011 17:37:42 GMT -5
Theres some dubious assumptions and not entirely right use of probability at work here... So, given an average of 1 wave of 5 pikachu's per 10/3 runs, and 0.01% chance of any given pikachu to be shiny, or alternatively, a 99.99% chance that a given pikachu is *not* shiny. This gives the probability of seeing 'n' pikachus in a row that are *not* shiny to be (9999/10000)^n. The probability that you will see a shiny pikachu within n pikachus is thus 1-(9999/10000)^n. In order to have a 50% chance of seeing a pikachu then, you'll need to have encountered n=log(0.5)/[log(9999)-4]=6932 pikachus, rounded up. That means, at 1 wave of 5 pikachus per 10/3 runs, you'll need to do 4622 runs (again, rounded up). At 2 minutes per run, that comes to just over 154 hours, or around 6.4 days of straight playing to even have a 50% chance of having seen a shiny pikachu. (Note that this is different from having a 50% chance that the 6932'nd pikachu is shiny, it's instead the chance that any one of the 6932 pikachu's you've seen is shiny, and it could well have been the first one you saw.) Notice that even at 10k pikachu sightings you don't have a 100% chance of having seen a shiny pikachu (in fact, you only have about a 63% chance at 10k sightings). It'd also take infinite pikachu sightings before you were garunteed to have seen one, which is in line with what you'd expect for something random. In order to have a 90% chance of having seen one, you'd need to have seen closer to 23k pikachus, which would take 21.3 days or so of straight playing. These numbers aren't any more encouraging that the ones given in the OP, but at least they take into account the random nature of things, since most of us won't be catching tons of shiny pikachus, so the long term average of 1/10k doesn't really apply to any one of us individually. I'm afraid you made a similar mistake in your calculations as well. The probability of a pickachu wave is actually 1- (probability of no pickachu waves) 1 % chance of pikachu wave. or 1 - (1 - .01)^30 = .2603 The probability of a shiny pikachu appearing in a run of VF2 is then the probability of one of the 5 pikachu being shiny and the probability of a pikachu wave. a shiny in a pikachu wave = 1 - the probability of no shinies 1 - (1-.0001)^5 ~= .0005 shiny in one play through of VF2 = probability of a shiny pikachu * probability of a pikachu wave or .2603 * .0005 = .00013 or .013% chance of a shiny pikachu in one play through of VF2. using essentially the same formula as you, this mean 5327 round of VF2 for a 50% chance of encountering a shiny pikachu.
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Post by Mysticman89 on Apr 19, 2011 18:01:30 GMT -5
1-(.99)^30 is the probably of *at least* 1 pikachu wave (not exactly 1 pikachu wave); it's very possible to have multiple pikachu waves in a single run of VF2, and accounting for the possibility of 2 pikachu waves or more in a single run is somewhat non-trivial in terms of the math.
However, unlike the case with shiny pikachu, where pretty much everyone is likely to stop after a single shiny pikachu event, the majority of shiny pikachu hunters are going to witness a large number of pikachu waves, and thus the long term average of 1% of waves being pikachu waves is valid.
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Post by eshadeslayer on Apr 19, 2011 20:37:05 GMT -5
I think my brain just melted I REALLY don't like talk like this especialy when it's holidays and maths is my least favourit subject i bearly understood a word you guys said
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Post by Mysticman89 on Apr 19, 2011 20:53:57 GMT -5
It turns out that the stuff you learn in school does in fact have important uses. For example, video games.
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Post by manowar on Apr 19, 2011 21:20:50 GMT -5
1-(.99)^30 is the probably of *at least* 1 pikachu wave (not exactly 1 pikachu wave); it's very possible to have multiple pikachu waves in a single run of VF2, and accounting for the possibility of 2 pikachu waves or more in a single run is somewhat non-trivial in terms of the math. However, unlike the case with shiny pikachu, where pretty much everyone is likely to stop after a single shiny pikachu event, the majority of shiny pikachu hunters are going to witness a large number of pikachu waves, and thus the long term average of 1% of waves being pikachu waves is valid. So true, i guess it all depends on what you want to consider as 1 "trial"
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Post by rend on Apr 20, 2011 4:19:15 GMT -5
I was considering continuing to try to find a shiny Pikachu, but this thread made me sadly realize it will never happen.
I know the hardcore players would hate this, but I think it could be a good thing if the odds of finding a shiny Pokémon increased the more times you replayed the level, to a reasonable limit of course. That would still enforce the rarity of them by making sure someone who was just playing through the game casually still wouldn't see one, but would encourage the collectors by assuring them that as they stick with it, they are being rewarded, and they would feel more confident that they more they played, the more likely it is that this attempt is going to be the one that gives them what they're after. The simple thought that the odds are going up, even very slightly, would keep them addicted to retrying.
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stan1654
Gym Leader
iCwutUdidThar
Posts: 198
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Post by stan1654 on Apr 20, 2011 8:24:26 GMT -5
There's still a chance that you can see a shiny pikachu in the first hour of playing VF2 or never D: I might sometimes spare some time to try... it won't hurt
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Post by notactuallytom on Apr 20, 2011 10:55:38 GMT -5
I think it's cooler when all pokemon can be shiny, and you find one when you're not expecting it. It's no fun if everyone can have every single pokemon shiny.
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Post by frappeman on Apr 20, 2011 11:26:14 GMT -5
god please help me (literally)
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