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Post by frappeman on Apr 20, 2011 11:27:20 GMT -5
There's a little less than 2/3 chance that a shiny pikachu will show up within 10000 trials. A trial being a pikachu showing up. so that means you will definately get it at 15,000 trials XD
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Post by Mysticman89 on Apr 20, 2011 12:05:43 GMT -5
I'm assuming you're being facetious, but in case you're not, and to avoid potentially confusing others, that's not the case.
At 15000 trials (1 trial being a pikachu encountered), you'd have about a 77.7% chance of having encountered at least one shiny.
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Post by sffc on Apr 20, 2011 14:40:19 GMT -5
I'm assuming you're being facetious, but in case you're not, and to avoid potentially confusing others, that's not the case. At 15000 trials (1 trial being a pikachu encountered), you'd have about a 77.7% chance of having encountered at least one shiny. yet again this isn't certain Like someone said before only at infinite trials you can be 100% that you fing a shiny. Basicly what it means is that: Per Pikachu that appears 0.1% of the population are shiny Therefore per Shiny there are 1000 Regulars Why are you taking in account the 5 pokemons in a run? Don't need it because only one of them will appear but if you want: 1000 - regulars for 1 shiny 5 regulars per run Doing the (In Portuguese it's called the Rule of the Symple Three) 1 run - 5 pikas x runs - 1k pikas You need 200 runs to get to 1000 pikachus If a run takes 2 min then it should take you 400 minutes to "probably" find one shiny this means that: 400/60 = 6,66666667h wich are about 6 hours and 40 minutes So almost 7 hours of intense browsing. But if you are a lucky bastard you can get it on the first run... It's odds never are certain
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Post by baconghost on Apr 20, 2011 15:33:29 GMT -5
I caught 1 without really tryin... i was tryin to get money and it just came
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Valentine
Gym Leader
I'm Rage-Winning!
Posts: 236
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Post by Valentine on Apr 20, 2011 15:34:35 GMT -5
e-e I don't Like Shiny Pokemon i don't understand the point of them, i'd get them if they had some strength bonus or something.
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Post by charmander on Apr 20, 2011 16:33:19 GMT -5
e-e I don't Like Shiny Pokemon i don't understand the point of them, i'd get them if they had some strength bonus or something. They level up 50% faster. That's a bonus.
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Post by manowar on Apr 20, 2011 17:06:19 GMT -5
I'm assuming you're being facetious, but in case you're not, and to avoid potentially confusing others, that's not the case. At 15000 trials (1 trial being a pikachu encountered), you'd have about a 77.7% chance of having encountered at least one shiny. yet again this isn't certain Like someone said before only at infinite trials you can be 100% that you fing a shiny. Basicly what it means is that: Per Pikachu that appears 0.1% of the population are shiny Therefore per Shiny there are 1000 Regulars Why are you taking in account the 5 pokemons in a run? Don't need it because only one of them will appear but if you want: 1000 - regulars for 1 shiny 5 regulars per run Doing the (In Portuguese it's called the Rule of the Symple Three) 1 run - 5 pikas x runs - 1k pikas You need 200 runs to get to 1000 pikachus If a run takes 2 min then it should take you 400 minutes to "probably" find one shiny this means that: 400/60 = 6,66666667h wich are about 6 hours and 40 minutes So almost 7 hours of intense browsing. But if you are a lucky bastard you can get it on the first run... It's odds never are certain You would be correct if it were a certainty that one shiny pikachu would show up in 10000 pikachus (not 1000 like you said. It's .01%, which is 1 out of 10000). You are falling into the statistical fallacy that each failure improves your chances of success, which it doesn't. If one wave of pikachu's comes by and none of the 5 are shiny, there is still only a .01% chance the of each pikachu in the next wave will be shiny, or actually about .05% chance that at least one of the pikachus will be shiny. There is a chance that there could be as many as 5 shinies in one wave (.0000000001 % chance, thats 9 zeroes).
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Post by sffc on Apr 21, 2011 7:37:26 GMT -5
yet again this isn't certain Like someone said before only at infinite trials you can be 100% that you fing a shiny. Basicly what it means is that: Per Pikachu that appears 0.1% of the population are shiny Therefore per Shiny there are 1000 Regulars Why are you taking in account the 5 pokemons in a run? Don't need it because only one of them will appear but if you want: 1000 - regulars for 1 shiny 5 regulars per run Doing the (In Portuguese it's called the Rule of the Symple Three) 1 run - 5 pikas x runs - 1k pikas You need 200 runs to get to 1000 pikachus If a run takes 2 min then it should take you 400 minutes to "probably" find one shiny this means that: 400/60 = 6,66666667h wich are about 6 hours and 40 minutes So almost 7 hours of intense browsing. But if you are a lucky bastard you can get it on the first run... It's odds never are certain You would be correct if it were a certainty that one shiny pikachu would show up in 10000 pikachus (not 1000 like you said. It's .01%, which is 1 out of 10000). You are falling into the statistical fallacy that each failure improves your chances of success, which it doesn't. If one wave of pikachu's comes by and none of the 5 are shiny, there is still only a .01% chance the of each pikachu in the next wave will be shiny, or actually about .05% chance that at least one of the pikachus will be shiny. There is a chance that there could be as many as 5 shinies in one wave (.0000000001 % chance, thats 9 zeroes). My bad Tought it was .1% and not .01% In that case you are right indeed, and like I said It's never a certainity. And I was talking about what they were saying, they were just considering that you won't be bloody out of luck (After the supposed 100% changes to appear it doesn't). What baconghost said is the proof of what I said, It can be even the very first run and oh my god there's a shiny
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Post by burn3321 on Apr 21, 2011 10:25:39 GMT -5
I think that the game should include a level that gives you pokemon that are good enough to kill all the geodudes and crap like that if given enough training. Maybe a starter or a good grass type.
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pingy
Trainer
Pokemon Rocks ;)
Posts: 68
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Post by pingy on Apr 21, 2011 13:25:54 GMT -5
Woahhhh 53 dayz That is rare well it is shiny
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Post by Calvin on Apr 21, 2011 22:57:37 GMT -5
Woahhhh 53 dayz That is rare well it is shiny Well the 53 days is just a generally gauge. Simply put, the time you would encounter at least 1 SHINY Pikachu ranges from 1 seconds - 53 days.
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Post by Mysticman89 on Apr 21, 2011 23:32:32 GMT -5
Strictly speaking, it runs from ~2 minutes (time for a single run of VF2) to infinity, the 53 day thing is just for a 99% chance, some unlucky individuals could play for 100 days straight and still not get one.
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